Apex Legends YouTuber The Gaming Merchant decided to conduct an experiment to find out how rare Heirlooms are in packs.
Although the Apex Legends community loves collecting skins, banners, holosprays, and charms, there’s one set of collectibles that every player is on the hunt for, and that’s Heirlooms.
These Legend-themed weapons are released alongside limited-time collection events and once they come to an end, the only way to obtain an Heirloom is through opening packs.
While it’s widely known that players are guaranteed an Heirloom after opening 500 packs, The Gaming Merchant decided to run an experiment to find out the base rarity of these sought-after items.
How hard is it to get an Heirloom in Apex Legends?
In order to work out the rough odds of receiving an Heirloom from a pack, The Gaming Merchant needed a large enough sample size, so they decided to ask for help from their community.
In total, 6,400 pack openings were submitted across 6,000 accounts, with 38 Heirlooms being unboxed. While this did allow The Gaming Merchant to work out the odds, it’s worth noting that they couldn’t account for how close each of the players was to their guaranteed Heirloom at 500 packs.
So to make the results slightly more accurate, The Gaming Merchant deducted all the entries from players who weren’t sure about how close they were to their guaranteed Heirloom.
After that, the experiment revealed that out of 6,400 packs, 10 Heirlooms were unboxed, making the rarity around 0.16% or 1 in 625.
Alongside a rough percentage, The Gaming Merchant also revealed that there’s no indication that the number of packs opened increases your chance of receiving an Heirloom.
This has been a point of discussion in the community for a while, so it seems like the debate can finally be put to bed.
– 6,400 apex packs opened across ~6,000 accounts– 38 heirlooms unboxed– 10 of those were 100% not their 500th pack– That equals 1 in 625 chanceThere's a huge margin of error, I think the rumored 1 in 500 chance, or 0.2% per pack is likely
— The Gaming Merchant (@GamingMerchant_) November 30, 2021
Keep in mind, The Gaming Merchant has acknowledged that the experiment has a huge margin of error as every player’s pack count cannot be tracked. However, the experiment did give us a rough outline of how hard it is to get Heirloom from a base Apex Legends pack.
It’ll be interesting to see if anyone decides to test this with a larger sample size in the future. Of course, running this test fr0m a single and brand new account would help with the accuracy but would cost a huge amount of money to conduct.