The League of Legends World Championships are underway in Iceland. In the play-ins group stage on October 6, HLE from the LCK will compete with RED from the CBLOL division.
Can Hanwha Life show up?
Although HLE’s double C is incredibly popular, their performance in the Summer Split was disappointing. HLE only managed to win 7 games while losing 11 and failed to make the playoffs. However, HLE’s strong performance in the spring split gave them the opportunity to participate in Korea’s regional finals.
In those matches, they made some adjustments and managed to defeat LSB and NS to qualify for the World Championships – becoming the very first team in history to make it to the World Championships without making their region’s playoffs.
Deft had a sluggish season over the summer and it wasn’t until the end of the season that he started to come back to life. Morgan and Willer’s performances were inconsistent. Their losses in the early game often forced HLE to play catch-up, which caused their offensive tempo in the mid-game to struggle, ultimately affecting their record in the summer.
The situation in Brazil’s CBLOL has changed drastically this season. Familiar faces at Worlds such as KaBuM! e-Sports and INTZ did not even qualify for the playoffs, and RED Canids, who represent the new guard, emerged. As the sixth-placed team in the regular season, RED Canids entered the playoffs at the bottom seed, only to upset two opponents back-to-back, and finally defeated RNS 3:1 to complete their underdog run and win the championship.
The overall style of CBLOL is rather distinct from the LCK. Generally, teams in the CBLOL are less focused on objectives, but prefer to try and take an early lead through continuous small team battles in the early and mid-game, gaining a gold lead and allowing them to exploit that to gain level up their items before fighting head-to-head with their opponents. Here, RED Canids is no exception. They rarely choose to let their opponents gather resources in the early game, instead, focusing on letting the three players from Nakano help the team build an early lead.
This style of play means that RED Canids are more likely to take the initiative to attack. They often choose to go on the offensive early and try to outnumber their opponents in the laning phase to take an early kill lead.
And even if HLE, which is a slower team focused on the late game, can drag the game out, they are still unlikely to take a serious kill lead. The odds of RED Canids scoring 8.5 kills are 2.031. If you think RED can take a lead in the early game, then this would be a good bet.
HLE’s unsatisfactory performance in the Summer Split can be placed largely on Morgan’s performance. Initially regarded as a breakout star of HLE by many viewers in the Summer Split, Morgan’s participation rate is only 46%, and his KDA is only a disastrous 3.8. Out of a possible 20 points, his online supplement and early-game ability are only 10 and 11 points respectively.
This is just a microcosm of Morgan’s catastrophic performance. In addition, both Rennickton and Camilla, as Morgan’s signature heroes, were nerfed in the World Series patch, making his already inadequate laning abilities even worse.
On the other side, RED Canids’ top player, GUIGO, is the tactical heart of the team. His ability to suppress opponents has made him a force to watch in the CBLOL. RED Canids are also the superior team at the top of the map.
If RED can take the lead in attacking the top lane, then the line The weak Morgan may become a breakthrough for HLE, giving RED a good chance to get the first kill of the game. In addition, RED Canids’ odds of scoring First Blood are 2.242, much higher than the HLE’s 1.615. If you’re worried that Morgan will be unable to secure an early lead for HLE, the betting on Red for First Blood is a good call.
The two teams take radically different approaches to the hunt for resources in the Jungle. HLE, which likes to rely on the double-C to win in the late game, is more accustomed to controlling the Dragons early. Contrast this with RED Canids, who advocate early offense and are accustomed to controlling the Rift Herald to try and take a speedy lead on the Turret count. RED Canids has managed to secure the first Herald 60% of the time over their last 25 games, whereas HLE has only secured it 42% of the time. It’s apparent that the two sides have different priorities when it comes to the neutral resources in the early game. We are likely to see a situation where RED chooses to compete for the Rift Herald first, and HLE decides to rush the Dragon.
The team that secures the Rift Herald is nearly certain to secure the first Turret as well. In their last 25 games, RED Canids has secured the first Turret 72% of the time compared to HLE’s 48% first Turret rate. If RED Canids gets the first Turret, expect them to launch an offensive at the top of the map to help further develop their gold lead.
If RED Canids’ can grab a few early kills, then their odds of claiming the first Turret increase even further. The odds of RED Canids getting the first Turret are as high as 2.661, more than doubling a winning bet. RED Canids for the first Turret is our pick.
Although HLE is coming into the tournament as a higher seed, their performance in the past six months has simply been underwhelming. Alternately, the dark horse RED Canids from the CBLOL Division have played outstandingly in the postseason. The two teams are evenly matched, and it’s likely to come down to only a few clutch plays. If RED can smoothly launch their early offense and convert their early leads into a winning situation, it’s extremely likely that they can come out on top and shake up the wild card division.