Apple Vision Pro pre-order numbers are out as analysts predict grim future

Apple is estimated to have sold between 160,000 and 180,000 Vision Pro headsets during first pre-orders but Kuo predicts the future to be dull.

Apple’s Vision Pro pre-orders launched on January 19, and the VR headset quickly sold out despite its hefty $3,499 price tag. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that Apple likely sold between 160,000 and 180,000 headsets over the entire pre-order weekend.

That’s considerably above an earlier prediction of between 60,000 and 80,000 units. However, Kuo doesn’t see Apple maintaining this demand in the future. The Apple Vision Pro, being a first-gen device, might not sell as well in the future due to several factors.

Apple could manage to sell at least 500,000 Vision Pro units

The TF International Securities analyst points out that Vision Pro’s quick sellout looks impressive, but it might not stay that way.

Kuo backs his argument with worry about Vision Pro’s shipping time. He mentions that 48 hours after pre-orders started, shipping times didn’t budge. This suggests that demand might drop off fast after the die-hard fans and power users get their orders in.

The analyst associates Vision Pro’s pre-orders with iPhones. “Popular iPhone models also sell out immediately upon pre-order, and shipping times typically increase to several weeks within hours,” he wrote in his blog on Medium.

Apple

“However, unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after pre-orders open, indicating that demand continues to grow even after the initial sold-out,” Kuo added.

Apple may face no issue in achieving a shipping volume of 500,000 units for Vision Pro but “because demand tapers off quickly after the initial sold-out, it’s critical to closely monitor demand in other markets and application updates to assess changes in demand,” he added.

With Apple’s current user base of 1.2 billion, even if 500,000 users purchase the VR headset, it represents only 0.007% of the total user count.

Apple Vision Pro is currently available for pre-order in the US. Other regions might get the VR headset later this year. For those in the US, Apple will also arrange a free trial. You can also check out what accessories Vision Pro ships with.