PUBG player disappointed after opening 200 crates but was he unlucky? - Dexerto

PUBG player disappointed after opening 200 crates but was he unlucky?

Published: 19/Jul/2019 15:56 Updated: 19/Jul/2019 19:52

by Paul Cot


Purchasable items are now part and parcel of games in 2019 and PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds is no different. One player decided to buy 200 crates in PUBG and it’s fair to say that it provided interesting results.

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Crates provide anything from weapons themselves, skins and a range of cosmetic items. In PUBG crates are divided into different types, each offering varying cosmetic items.

Item are divided into five tiers, with tier one including the most common items and tier five the rarest. The PUBG rarity system particularly favors more common items, with tier three, four and five items being exponentially rarer.


PUBGCrates play an important role in and out the game in PUBG…
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Looking for a rare cowboy hat

One Xbox player had their eye on a cowboy hat and therefore stuck with the Western Military Crate. After opening it 200 times, he was left disappointed that he didn’t get what he was looking for.

He opened a tier one or two item 96% of the time, tier three 4% and failed to get one tier four or five item. While this doesn’t sound great, given the actual odds of the items involved, he actually did pretty well.

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According to Gamepedia, the chances of obtaining each item are as follows:

  • Tier 5 Military Skirt (Black): 0.0064%
  • Tier 4 Cowboy Hat (White): 0.0128%
  • Tier 4 Faux Leather Jacket: 0.0128%
  • Tier 3 Cowboy Hat (Brown): 0.028%
  • Tier 3 Military Cap (Black): 0.05%
  • Tier 3 Military Jacket (Black): 0.05%
  • Tier 3 Leather Bootcut Pants: 0.08%
  • Tier 3 Battle Belt: 0.28%
  • Tier 3 Vintage Gask Mask: 0.28%
  • Tier 2 Military Boots (Black): 0.4%
  • Tier 2 Camo Tank Top (Red): 1.4%
  • Tier 2 Utility Belt (Brown) 1.4%
  • Tier 1 Long Sleeved Turtleneck (Black): 3%
  • Tier 1 Military Shirt (Gray): 6.5%
  • Tier 1 Military Trousers (Black): 6.5%
  • Tier 1 Polo Shirt (Pink): 20%
  • Tier 1 Raglan T-shirt (Red/White): 20%
  • Tier 1 Tank-top (Gray): 20%
  • Tier 1 Vintage Polo Shirt: 20%

u/0731parkOdds of each item in PUBG’s militia crate…
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No tier 1 or 2 items but still got lucky

Given this player managed to get tier three or higher 4% of the time, he was actually very lucky. In this crate tier three items make up less than 1% chance, so he significantly surpassed expectations.


However, this is more a reflection on how poor the odds are of rare items in PUBG crates. Players often expect there to be a reasonable chance of getting the item they want but this isn’t the case for PUBG.

Lesson learnt: if you’re looking for a particular rare item in PUBG, it probably isn’t worth opening random crates looking for it.