Pokemon Let's Go players know the basic shiny odds. In reality though, the chances of encountering a shiny Pokemon vary wildly based on variance alone. We discuss the actual percentages of finding shiny Pokemon.
Pokemon Shiny Odds
The base odds of getting a shiny in Pokemon Let's Go can be as high as a 1 in 4,096 chance. However, with a lure, shiny charm and catch combo these odds can decrease to 1 in 273.07.
The lure, shiny charm and number of catch combos are the key factors in determining the odds of finding a shiny Pokemon variant. Different combinations of these result in odds varying between the highest and lowest stated above.
In addition to this, further factors such as location, method of movement and leaving/entering an area have been slated to impact these odds.
With that said here are the chances of spawning a shiny:
|Catch Combo||Shiny Rate||Shiny Rate With Lure||Shiny Rate with Shiny Charm||Shiny Rate with Shiny Charm and Lure|
|0-10||1 in 4,096||1 in 2,048||1 in 1,365.3||1 in 1,024|
|11-20||1 in 1,024||1 in 819.2||1 in 682.6||1 in 585.14|
|21-30||1 in 512||1 in 455.1||1 in 409.6||1 in 372.36|
|31+||1 in 341.3||1 in 315.08||1 in 292.57||1 in 273.07|
However, when you enter into the equation how many Pokemon you are seeing, then time becomes an important factor. Consequently, putting yourself in a position of using the best odds above is imperative. Therefore, getting as many Pokemon to spawn as possible becomes imperative to efficient shiny hunting.
Read More: Increasing The Odds of Shiny Pokemon
Shiny Pokemon Chances - A Misconception
Some Pokemon Let's Go players will look at these odds and think it takes x amount of spawns to see a certain shiny Pokemon. This is false. These odds are simply an average of how many Pokemon you have to see before spawning a shiny.
Further to this point, if you spawn 200 Pokemon without seeing a shiny, you are still the same number of attempts away from spawning that Pokemon as when you started.
A better way to look at the chances of spawning Shiny Pokemon in Let's Go would be to know the number you have to spawn to have a 90% chance of seeing one. This is opposed to the 1 in x method.
Expanding on the 90% method further, this would mean that if you spawned x number of Pokemon there would be a 90% chance you'd get a shiny. Furthermore, you can apply this same logic to a 66% chance and 50% chance. These odds are shown in the table below.
|No chain, lure or charm||9,430||4,499||2,838|
|Charm and lure||2,356||1,124||709|
|Chain and lure||724||345||218|
|Chain and charm||672||320||202|
|Chain, charm and lure||627||299||188|
*Number of Pokemon in a sample to have x% chance of seeing it
These odds come from u/Rhynegains. Further discussion can be seen below.