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Pokemon • Dec 31, 2018

Pokemon Let's Go shiny odds | What are the real chances of a shiny spawn?


Pokemon Let's Go players know the basic shiny odds. In reality though, the chances of encountering a shiny Pokemon vary wildly based on variance alone. We discuss the actual percentages of finding shiny Pokemon.


Pokemon Shiny Odds

The base odds of getting a shiny in Pokemon Let's Go can be as high as a 1 in 4,096 chance. However, with a lure, shiny charm and catch combo these odds can decrease to 1 in 273.07.

The lure, shiny charm and number of catch combos are the key factors in determining the odds of finding a shiny Pokemon variant. Different combinations of these result in odds varying between the highest and lowest stated above.

In addition to this, further factors such as location, method of movement and leaving/entering an area have been slated to impact these odds.

With that said here are the chances of spawning a shiny:

Catch ComboShiny RateShiny Rate With LureShiny Rate with Shiny CharmShiny Rate with Shiny Charm and Lure
0-101 in 4,0961 in 2,0481 in 1,365.31 in 1,024
11-201 in 1,0241 in 819.21 in 682.61 in 585.14
21-301 in 5121 in 455.11 in 409.61 in 372.36
31+1 in 341.31 in 315.081 in 292.571 in 273.07


However, when you enter into the equation how many Pokemon you are seeing, then time becomes an important factor. Consequently, putting yourself in a position of using the best odds above is imperative. Therefore, getting as many Pokemon to spawn as possible becomes imperative to efficient shiny hunting.

Read More: Increasing The Odds of Shiny Pokemon


Shiny Pokemon Chances - A Misconception

Some Pokemon Let's Go players will look at these odds and think it takes x amount of spawns to see a certain shiny Pokemon. This is false. These odds are simply an average of how many Pokemon you have to see before spawning a shiny.

Further to this point, if you spawn 200 Pokemon without seeing a shiny, you are still the same number of attempts away from spawning that Pokemon as when you started.

A better way to look at the chances of spawning Shiny Pokemon in Let's Go would be to know the number you have to spawn to have a 90% chance of seeing one. This is opposed to the 1 in x method.

Expanding on the 90% method further, this would mean that if you spawned x number of Pokemon there would be a 90% chance you'd get a shiny. Furthermore, you can apply this same logic to a 66% chance and 50% chance. These odds are shown in the table below.

  90%* 66%* 50%*
No chain, lure or charm 9,430 4,499 2,838
Lure only 4,714 2,249 1,418
Charm only 3,142 1,499 946
Charm and lure 2,356 1,124 709
Chain only 784 374 236
Chain and lure 724 345 218
Chain and charm 672 320 202
Chain, charm and lure 627 299 188

*Number of Pokemon in a sample to have x% chance of seeing it

These odds come from u/Rhynegains. Further discussion can be seen below.

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